This takes the Medicare cases a hospital actually treated in 2024 and prices them twice. Once at FY2026 rates, once at FY2027 rates. The case count is identical in both years, so every dollar of change shown here comes from what CMS did to the rates and the weights. Volume and coding are held still on purpose.
Medicare does not send a hospital the full priced amount. The patient owes the Part A deductible, and 2% comes off the rest for sequestration. These two boxes turn the priced amount into what actually lands in the bank. The defaults are the published deductibles and the standard 2% withhold. Change them if a different assumption fits better. The FY2026 box holds the real calendar 2026 deductible of $1,736. The FY2027 box is an estimate, because CMS does not announce the calendar 2027 deductible until November 2026.
Bills, CASETA43, CMIV43,
CASETA44 and CMIV44. CMS publishes these for the whole
hospital with no small-cell suppression, and they are what the revenue totals on this
page are built on.FY 2026 Wage Index. The Puerto Rico note under "What to be careful about"
says why that was needed.07001001 or 140010A. The caseload file reports only the 6-digit
number, so those campus records are collapsed into the parent and the main hospital record
sets the rate. Where the campuses sit in different wage areas, all of the volume gets
priced at the main campus rate.The MS-DRG detail does not add up to the hospital totals, and it is not meant to. CMS suppresses every hospital-and-MS-DRG combination with fewer than 11 discharges in it before publishing the caseload file. That is a privacy rule about small cells, applied uniformly, and it is not a judgement about any hospital. Its effect here is very uneven. A hospital with a large Medicare book has most of its MS-DRGs above the threshold and loses little. A hospital with a small Medicare book spread across many MS-DRGs can lose almost all of it, which is why the loss is heaviest at safety-net hospitals whose patients are mostly not on Medicare.
Two consequences follow, and both are visible on the page.
First, the totals are restored and are estimates. Summing only the published MS-DRGs would understate most hospitals and would badly understate some. Every revenue total, change, per-discharge figure and payment component on this page is therefore scaled to CMS's own case-mix-weighted volume for that hospital, taken from the impact file, and priced at the rate that hospital is actually paid. The arithmetic is deliberately simple and is stated on the hospital's own page in section 08: CMS's published annual Uncompensated Care Payment, plus CMS's case count times its case-mix index times the hospital's payment per unit of relative weight. That last figure is a constant at a given hospital, so it can be read straight off the MS-DRGs CMS did publish. Any hospital whose total this moves by more than 5% is marked EST beside the figure, with the published share alongside it.
Second, the MS-DRG table in section 09 is left exactly as CMS published it. It is not scaled, spread or filled in, because the rows CMS withheld are not knowable one code at a time, and inventing them would put numbers on the page that CMS never published. So section 09 will not sum to the totals in sections 01 through 07 at most hospitals. The difference between them is the suppressed volume, and section 08 prints both numbers for the hospital you are looking at.
The scale factor is never below 1: suppression can only ever have removed volume. At a small number of hospitals the 2024 caseload file carries more volume than CMS's rate-setting extract does, because the two have different vintages; those totals are left alone rather than cut. One factor is used for both years, so the year-over-year percent change on every hospital is unaffected by any of this. The correction moves the levels, not the rate effect, and the national figure is the same either way.
What this means in practice. Treat a hospital's percent change, its rank and its MS-DRG mix as the reliable output of this page. Treat the absolute dollar totals as good estimates whose quality is stated on each hospital's page, and check the published share in section 08 before quoting one. Where the published share is low, the total rests on CMS's aggregate figures for the hospital rather than on the MS-DRG rows, and should be read that way.
Small case counts are missing from the caseload file. CMS hides any hospital and DRG combination with fewer than 11 discharges. The 11-discharge bucket is the biggest one in the file, which says a lot of volume sits just under the line. What is shown here is the reportable part of a hospital's Medicare book. Expect these counts to run below a hospital's own, and expect the hidden cases to lean toward low-volume, high-weight work.
FY2027 rates start on October 1, 2026. A hospital whose budget year is not the federal fiscal year gets a blend. A calendar-year hospital sees nine months of FY2027 rates in 2027 and three months of FY2026 rates. Weight this figure accordingly before it goes into a budget.
Traditional Medicare only. No Medicare Advantage, no Medicaid, no commercial. Nationally, Medicare Advantage now covers more than half of Medicare beneficiaries, though the share of inpatient volume varies a lot by market. None of it is here, though MA contracts often reference these same MS-DRG amounts.
Cardiac pacemaker revision and device replacement. CMS deleted MS-DRGs 258, 259, 260, 261 and 262 and replaced all five with MS-DRG 210 (with MCC) and MS-DRG 211 (without MCC). The old with-MCC tiers, 258 and 260, go to 210. The old with-CC and without-CC/MCC tiers, 259, 261 and 262, go to 211. No case had to be split, so this carries no estimate.
Uterine and adnexa procedures. CMS deleted MS-DRGs 736, 737 and 738 and MS-DRGs 739, 740 and 741 and merged both branches into MS-DRGs 731, 732 and 733. The severity tiers line up one for one, so 736 and 739 go to 731, 737 and 740 go to 732, and 738 and 741 go to 733. All 689 procedure codes carried over and the new weights fall between the two old branches at every tier, which is what a clean merge should produce.
Hip and knee revision, and joint infection. This is the one place we are estimating. CMS deleted MS-DRGs 466, 467 and 468 and MS-DRGs 485, 486 and 487, and created MS-DRG 449, MS-DRG 400, and MS-DRGs 403 and 404. It also rewrote the grouping logic. It removed a procedure code cluster restriction that used to force cases coded with both a removal code and a replacement code into the revision MS-DRGs, so those cases now group to MS-DRGs 463, 464 and 465 instead. And it pulled two knee prosthesis infection diagnosis codes out of the knee infection logic so those cases group to the new periprosthetic joint infection codes. CMS says directly that no case with a principal diagnosis of periprosthetic joint infection remains in 466, 467 or 468, but it has not published counts for where the rest went, and the redistribution report it promises is for a future proposed rule. So we split each deleted code by hand and we are calling these estimates. The infection shares track published rates of infection as an indication for revision arthroplasty, which run about 15% to 25%.
Extensive and complex spinal fusion, and what this model gets wrong. CMS created MS-DRGs 523, 524 and 525 by pulling extensive and complex fusion cases out of ten MS-DRGs that all still exist in FY2027: 426, 427, 428, 447, 448, 450, 451, 456, 457 and 458. No MS-DRG was deleted to make room, so no retired code maps to them, and the 2024 caseload file has no volume under codes that did not exist. We leave the ten source MS-DRGs whole and assign nothing to 523, 524 or 525. Those three carry much higher relative weights (13.7383, 9.8322 and 7.2950 against 3.2596 to 9.9191 for the source codes), so at a hospital with a lot of extensive fusion work the FY2027 figure on this page understates what CMS would pay. There is no way to size that without running the Version 44 grouper against that hospital's own claims.
For each hospital and DRG, with d discharges, weights w₆ and
w₇, and the weight-driven part of the payment y₆ and
y₇:
d × (w₇ - w₆) × y₆/w₆d × w₇ × (y₇/w₇ - y₆/w₆)The four pieces add up to the total change exactly, with nothing left over. The weight effect is measured at FY2026 rates and the rate effect at FY2027 weights, which puts the interaction between them into the rate bar.
DRG Impact is an analytical estimate produced from public CMS data. It is not accounting, tax, legal, actuarial, reimbursement, billing or investment advice, and it is not a substitute for your own analysis or for professional counsel. Nothing here creates a client relationship of any kind. Do not use these figures as the sole basis for any budget, forecast, filing, contract, appeal, financial statement, disclosure or business decision.
All data, calculations, groupings and observations shown here must be separately verified against the primary sources and against the hospital's own records before anyone relies on them. The authoritative sources are the CMS Inpatient Prospective Payment System final rule and its published tables, the CMS pricer, and the hospital's own claims, remittance and general ledger data. Where this tool and an official CMS publication disagree, the CMS publication governs.
These figures are modeled gross payments holding the 2024 case mix constant. They exclude outlier and transfer payments, short-stay adjustments, the low-volume adjustment, new technology add-ons and pass-through amounts. They cover traditional Medicare fee-for-service only and exclude Medicare Advantage, Medicaid and commercial payers. Some MS-DRGs and some hospitals cannot be priced at all and are absent. Source files may contain errors, may be revised or corrected by CMS, and may not reflect subsequent rulemaking, correction notices, litigation or legislation. Section 11 sets out the methodology and its limits in full, and you should read it before relying on any figure here.
Nothing here is a guarantee, warranty or prediction of any payment any hospital will receive. What Medicare actually pays is determined by CMS, by the hospital's Medicare Administrative Contractor, and by the law in force on the date of service, and it will differ from these estimates.
Built from CMS files as published, in August 2026. The FY2026 side reflects the FY2026 IPPS final rule, CMS-1833-F, priced by the official CMS FY2026 pricer, except at the Puerto Rico hospitals, where the FY2026 side is priced by the Bright Spot Insights IPPS calculation engine on the wage index CMS published, for the reason given in the Puerto Rico note above. The FY2027 side reflects the FY2027 IPPS final rule, CMS-1849-F, display date July 31, 2026, published in the Federal Register on August 4, 2026 at 91 FR 49570, priced by the Bright Spot Insights IPPS calculation engine because CMS has not released the FY2027 pricer. Once CMS releases the FY2027 pricer, the rates in this tool will be compared against it and updated so they line up for every hospital and every MS-DRG. Nothing here reflects later legislation, correction notices or litigation. Figures may be superseded without notice.
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Bright Spot Insights. Analysis prepared by Brian Cotter. Source data published by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Questions about methodology are welcome at brightspotinsights.com.